The Great Depression was not a sudden total collapse. The stock market turned upward in earlyreturning to early levels by April, though still almost 30 percent below of peak in September But consumers, many of whom had suffered severe losses in the stock market the prior year, cut back their expenditures by ten percent, and a severe drought ravaged the agricultural heartland of the USA beginning in the northern summer of And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
But, the financial pundits and government leaders of the day insisted, the economy's fundamentals were still strong. Mass unemployment was, some months after the crash, still just something that went on in Germany and Britain. America was strong and merely needed a push to keep the financial markets from harming the broader economy.
Professional Managers Raise Cash. There is too much of the? Worse yet, the Chinas and Indias of the world are cranking up the money-printing presses to keep their currencies from rising too fast against the U. This is going to become an inflation reality show.
The Federal Reserve and the Bush Administration didn't want to hear anything about these problems. The Fed has finally got around to closing the stable door on subprime lendingbut the after the horse has already bolted," he said. En liten historisk bakgrund: Nu hugger jag boliden i alla fall. Boliden - jag menade att det var dags kortsiktigt. Q4 och Q1 blir kanonrapporter. Tycker det ser ut tekniskt som om dollarn och bade korta rantan 3 manaders och 10 arig ranta ar pa vag upp.
Denna artikel skulle man kunna se som FA. Tycker fortfarande om man tittar pa USD langt tillbaka att botten som ar gjord pa dollarn for inte allt for lange sedan kan vara vag 3 av en ending diagonal triangle. Om botten pa dollarns vag 3 ar gjord, sa ar det en fraktal av vag 1 av densamma.
Vilket skulle betyda att dollarn fortsatter ner med borjan i slutet pa detta ar, vilket skulle ge en ny President en bra start? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting Well "probably" guaranteed - but the historic growth rate of that prosperity may now be threatened. Because demand in the form of consumption has been artificially and fictitiously stimulated in recent years by financial engineering run amuck, there is a legitimate question as to whether its black hole imploding destructiveness can be totally countered with another dose of lower yields and deficit spending packages.
It will be of marginal benefit to long-term prosperity. To understand why, consider that the productivity of our economy ultimately depends on its ability to 1 innovate, and 2 save and invest, and that there is little of either in this stimulus package. Some have even suggested - and with my somewhat grudging concession - that this package will help the Chinese economy more than ours.
But government writing checks for American consumers Rantan ned trots stark tillvaxt 1 then flow to foreign central banks is not the permanent solution; it only makes sense in the short-term as a life preserver. To provide a stable recovery path, government spending needs to fill the gap - not consumption.
Public works programs, badly needed infrastructure repairs, as well as spending on research and development projects should form the heart of our path to recovery. As Keynes theorized and then Krugman affirmedwhen private demand falters, it becomes the responsibility of government to fill the breech.
Because it likely will not do so effectively until after a new Administration is elected in late U. Better late than never. Det rapporterar Bloomberg News. Samtidigt steg de privata inkomsterna 0,2 procent. Consumer spending in the U. Vart vill du komma? Marknaden har prisat in en Rantan ned trots stark tillvaxt 1 redan.
Now in his Report forissued in mid-December, he carried the news every thinking American already knows. A lot of his optimism springs from the gargantuan changes occurring in Asia.
And all of that means tremendous demand for protein," says Coxe. There are also concerns on the supply side, he adds. Midwest, where a lot of the world's corn is grown, has had 17 straight good growing years. That's one of the longest on record and is bound to come to an end eventually. Given his bullish outlook, Coxe says fertilizer stocks, farm equipment stocks and genetically modified seed stocks "still look to be about as an attractive as an investment can be.
Orsak och verkan stry. Yterligare folk hittar jobb. Shiller comparing current situation to Great The spending blueprint for fiscal is the biggest ever. Pentagon spending would rise 7. Programs in the departments of education, interior, transportation, justice and agriculture would be reduced.
Lawmakers took a different view. Banks are raising their credit standards for mortgages, consumer loans and commercial real estate loans at a pace never seen in the year history of the Fed's quarterly survey of senior bank loan officers, the survey showed.
Banks are requiring more disclosures, more collateral and a higher interest rate before approving loans, the survey Rantan ned trots stark tillvaxt 1. Demand is plunging for many types of loans, especially for residential mortgages and commercial real estate loans.
For consumers, banks are tightening up on all types of mortgages, not just subprime loans. And banks are less willing to approve consumer installment loans. The All Ordinaries Index of stocks suffered its worst monthly decline in more than 20 years in January. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers. The release of this morning? But even beyond the data, the release was one of the most unusual in recent memory. To begin with, yesterday afternoon ISM alerted reporters that it was moving up today?
And the data itself, when released at 8: Nearly every component of the survey moved from expansion to contraction. The business activity index dropped to New orders dropped to And employment dropped to Readings under 50 indicate contractions.
Plus, this report marked the first addition of a new "overall" index that equally weighs the components business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries and is aimed to better track the U. That debuted at The atmosphere on this morning? Reporters demanded an explanation for the change in the release time.
Finally, ISM vice president Andrea Waas explained that "late yesterday" ISM was contacted and told that there could be "a possible breach of very, very general Rantan ned trots stark tillvaxt 1 related to the report," in a private conversation that an individual involved "in making the release happen" had with another person who may or may not have even realized the information was leaked.
But to prevent any individuals from making advantageous trades on the insider information, ISM decided to release the data this morning before the markets opened at 9: Between the possible data breach, the addition of a new index, and the incredible drop in business activity, survey chair Anthony Nieves admitted it was "a perfect storm. Estimates ranged from 51 to The index has averaged Services take a plunge. It is hard to imagine any time in history when such rampant pessimism about the U.
True, retail sales fell 0. It is also true that in the past six months manufacturing production Rantan ned trots stark tillvaxt 1 been flat, new orders for durable goods have fallen at a 0. Soft data for sure, but nowhere near the end of the world After months of treating the word like a hot potato, a senior Federal Reserve policymaker said publicly what economists have been saying for months: A recession may be on the U.
Lacker stressed that a recession was not his central forecast. Instead, he projected "sluggish growth for at least half a year before a gradual firming begins.
The Twelve Steps to Financial Disaster. To understand the Fed actions one has to realize that there is now a rising probability of a "catastrophic" financial and economic outcome, i.
The Fed is seriously worried about this vicious circle and about the risks of a systemic financial meltdown. S and European customers becoming increasingly cautious," Chambers said on a conference call with analysts. Some fear the economic slowdown is spreading to other parts of the globe. Why listen to Cisco? According to Yahoo finance, they are the largest player in the networking and communication devices by a wide margin. And there is also this nugget from IBD: Investors look to Cisco for a fresh take on the economy.
It's the first major tech company to give results for fiscal quarters that end in January. Len Blum, managing director
Rantan ned trots stark tillvaxt 1 partner at Westwood Capital, said the drop in credit-card use showed that consumers were "in trouble. It doesn't bode well for the economy," Blum said. F och fr m batteriet laddas upp med batteriets cellsp exempelvis 1,5 volt.
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